Possible scenario
Bear Market Deepens
30% Chance
Forced sales from the 130 liquidated funds overwhelm domestic buyers and push Turkish equities further below their recent peak. The damage is still mostly local, but banks, brokerages and consumer-facing Turkish equities reprice for weaker collateral values and lower trading activity.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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