Possible scenario
Regulatory Compromise Emerges
20% Chance
The parties move toward a practical resolution shaped by the CFTC's October retail crypto leverage rules. Kalshi may keep the product but with guardrails that address CME's market-integrity and competitive-process objections.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
Tickers
- CME+0.6%
- COIN+0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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