Possible scenario
CME Case Proceeds
25% Chance
The court rejects the CFTC's dismissal motion and permits CME to pursue claims that the agency improperly allowed Kalshi's crypto perpetual futures. This outcome would not decide the merits immediately, but it would prolong legal uncertainty around retail-accessible perpetuals.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
Tickers
- CME+1.9%
- COIN-1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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