Possible scenario
Independent Inquiry Revives
20% Chance
External investigators outside the current FBI chain of command attempt to reconstruct the halted inquiry. This could come from the DOJ inspector general, Maine authorities, or litigation by fired FBI officials who allege political retaliation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Business Services -0.1%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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