Possible scenario
Espionage Link Emerges
30% Chance
A less likely but serious outcome is that investigators identify communications, payments or tasking consistent with Russian intelligence direction. This would fit the wider UK narrative of hostile Russian activity and recent sabotage warnings.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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