Possible scenario
Regional Emergency Widens
18% Chance
Flooding expands across parts of mainland Southeast Asia, raising the regional death toll and straining relief agencies. The financial impact is concentrated in agriculture, cross-border transport, and regional tourism rather than global risk assets.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.2%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
- Industrials -0.1%
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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