Contained Compliance Settlement

The most likely path is that the DOJ settlement remains a manageable legal expense for Instacart, with limited operational disruption. Investors treat the $5 million payment as immaterial relative to Maplebear's public-market valuation, though the case adds modest reputational and compliance costs.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.