Possible scenario
Humanitarian Corridor
30% Chance
International pressure from the UN, ICRC, Turkey, and possibly Qatar produces a narrow humanitarian arrangement. Moscow may allow limited aid or evacuations if it can retain security control and extract propaganda value.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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