Possible scenario
Forced Relocation
20% Chance
Russian forces may use hunger as leverage to compel civilians to leave, register, or accept relocation deeper into occupied territory. This would fit prior Russian practices in occupied Kherson and southern Ukraine, especially after flooding and depopulation along the Dnipro.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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