Possible scenario
Blockade Persists
35% Chance
Russian occupation authorities keep tight control over Oleshky and restrict outside deliveries, allowing only sporadic local distribution. The most likely path is a grinding humanitarian crisis rather than an immediate battlefield breakthrough or major diplomatic concession.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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