Possible scenario
Hormuz Disruption Spreads
20% Chance
A more severe path emerges if another projectile, drone or missile incident follows the GFS Pride sinking. Insurers, tanker owners and Gulf exporters would treat the risk as systemic to Hormuz transit, causing a sharper oil move and broader risk-off reaction.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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