Possible scenario
Sustained Fuel Campaign
38% Chance
Russia continues using jet drones against Kyiv fuel stations, depots, and distribution nodes to strain civilian mobility and emergency services. This is the most likely path because it fits the recent pattern of strikes on refineries, ports, and urban energy infrastructure without requiring a major change in war aims.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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