Possible scenario
Saudi Retaliation Intensifies
30% Chance
Riyadh treats the claimed airport hit as a threshold breach and launches retaliatory airstrikes against Houthi missile and drone infrastructure in Yemen. The escalation remains mostly bilateral, but traders price higher Gulf security risk and stronger demand for air-defense systems.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.