Possible scenario
Regional Escalation Risk
20% Chance
Saudi Arabia publicly links the missile attack to Iranian support networks and seeks stronger US and Gulf backing. The confrontation does not immediately become a full regional war, but the risk premium rises sharply because markets focus on oil facilities, shipping lanes, and further attacks on Saudi cities.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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