Possible scenario
Contained Airport Disruption
38% Chance
Saudi authorities confirm limited physical damage at King Khalid International Airport and restore most flight operations within a day. The Houthis claim a symbolic victory, but Riyadh avoids immediate large-scale escalation while reinforcing air defenses around the capital.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
- Consumer Services -0.7%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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