Possible scenario
Courts Block Cancellation
45% Chance
Federal courts rely on the GAO finding and the Impoundment Control Act to halt the pocket rescission. The most likely path is a temporary or preliminary injunction requiring the Trump administration to preserve or release the affected funds while litigation proceeds.
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.3%
- Industrials +0.2%
- Business Services +0.2%
- Technology +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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