Possible scenario
Infrastructure Escalation Broadens
20% Chance
Russia expands the drone campaign from communications centers to power substations, data centers, and transport control systems around Kyiv. This would be a material escalation within the existing war, increasing geopolitical risk without necessarily becoming a systemic global crisis.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.3%
- Telecommunications -1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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