Possible scenario
Contained Attrition Campaign
45% Chance
Russia continues using Geran-5 jet drones against Kyiv communications infrastructure, but the campaign remains within the established pattern of the war. Ukrainian telecom operators reroute traffic and restore partial service while air-defense shortages keep interception rates uneven.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Telecommunications -0.5%
- Industrials +0.5%
Tickers
- +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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