Possible scenario
Selective Rule Tightening
38% Chance
The government treats the headline as political confirmation that migration is still doing too much of the labour-market work. Ministers tighten work-visa eligibility and enforcement, but avoid a blanket shutdown because health, care, hospitality and food production remain short of staff.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.5%
- Business Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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