Possible scenario
Employer Lobby Wins
22% Chance
Business groups, universities and public-sector employers use the data to argue that the UK economy cannot absorb abrupt curbs without harming services and growth. The government keeps the political rhetoric tough but preserves sector-specific access to overseas workers.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.4%
- Healthcare +0.3%
- Industrials +0.2%
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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