Possible scenario
GOP Lead Holds
42% Chance
Republicans continue converting registration gains and high-propensity conservative turnout into an early in-person advantage. Democratic mail-ballot strength remains real, but the Republican Party of Florida keeps enough volume in large counties and retirement-heavy areas to stay ahead in the combined early vote.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
- Energy +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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