Possible scenario
Democrats Narrow Gap
28% Chance
The Democratic mail advantage remains meaningful and late-returning Democratic ballots reduce the Republican early vote lead. This scenario fits the recent Democratic improvement in registration trends, but still leaves Republicans with a structural edge in Florida.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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