Possible scenario
Farm-State Hardening
24% Chance
Farm lobbies and governments in Poland, France, Hungary, Slovakia and Romania push for stronger protections beyond the proposed budget restriction. The dispute remains mainly sectoral, but it raises the political cost of integrating Ukraine into the EU single market.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.8%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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