Possible scenario
Accession Talks Slow
21% Chance
The farm-budget dispute becomes a broader obstacle to accession negotiations, especially if unanimity politics harden around the 2027 EU budget. This does not end Ukraine's candidacy, but it pushes the practical timeline for membership further out.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.2%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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