Possible scenario
One Hike Delivered
30% Chance
A single 25-basis-point increase becomes the central case if services inflation and wage growth remain too firm. The move would be framed as insurance against a renewed inflation cycle rather than the start of a long tightening campaign.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.0%
- Utilities -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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