Possible scenario
Cyber Pressure Escalates
20% Chance
Iran or affiliated cyber groups use the new authority as political cover for harassment of Gulf AI, telecom and data-center infrastructure. This would be a more serious escalation because it could affect service reliability and insurance, even if no large data center is permanently disabled.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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