Possible scenario
Yields Extend Higher
42% Chance
The stronger PMI reinforces the view that U.S. growth is too firm for the Federal Reserve to ease policy soon. Investors continue to demand higher term premium as the 10-year Treasury yield trades at post-2007 highs.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -1.7%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.