Possible scenario
Yield Reversal
20% Chance
Investors judge the selloff overextended after the 10-year yield reaches its highest level since 2007. Dip-buying, softer secondary data or dovish Fed communication triggers a short-term rally in Treasuries.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Down
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +1.6%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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