Possible scenario
Rates Stabilize
28% Chance
After the initial PMI-driven selloff, Treasury markets find two-way flow near the psychologically important 5% level. Investors wait for inflation data and Fed commentary before extending the move.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.2%
- Finance +0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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