Possible scenario
Full EU Package
42% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the European Commission, major member states, and the European Parliament converge on a package that covers most or all of Kyiv's 2027 financing gap. The deal probably combines EU budget headroom, national guarantees, and concessional loans rather than relying on a single instrument.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
- Finance +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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