Possible scenario
Asset-Backed Solution
25% Chance
The EU and G7 lean more heavily on immobilized Russian sovereign assets to avoid larger direct fiscal contributions from member states. This route is politically attractive but legally sensitive, especially for Belgium and Euroclear.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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