Possible scenario
NATO Escalates Response
18% Chance
NATO moves beyond defensive warnings toward coordinated expulsions, cyber countermeasures, sanctions, and expanded deployments in Poland and the Baltics. The alliance still tries to avoid direct combat, but markets price a higher probability of NATO-Russia confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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