Possible scenario
Limited Deadly Attack
30% Chance
A fatal but geographically contained attack occurs against Polish transport, telecom, or logistics infrastructure. NATO treats it as a grave hybrid escalation, likely invoking Article 4 consultations while avoiding immediate military retaliation against Russia.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Telecommunications -1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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