Possible scenario
Iran Tensions Resurface
20% Chance
Azerbaijan connects the protests to Iranian influence operations, building on the 2023 embassy attack and the March 2026 Iranian strikes on Azerbaijani territory. Tehran denies involvement, but both sides use the dispute to harden security postures.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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