Possible scenario
Energy or transport hit
15% Chance
The Houthis attempt to shift from symbolic attacks on Riyadh toward economically sensitive targets. Even limited damage to energy infrastructure or airports would quickly lift the regional risk premium because investors remember the 2019 Abqaiq disruption.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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