Possible scenario
Contained retaliation cycle
45% Chance
Saudi Arabia responds with limited airstrikes against Houthi missile infrastructure while avoiding a wider campaign. The pattern remains one of interception, retaliation, and renewed warnings, with neither side ready to accept a truce on unfavorable territorial terms.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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