Possible scenario
Broader military escalation
30% Chance
The Riyadh injury hardens Saudi calculations and makes a larger retaliatory campaign more likely. Houthi leaders answer with expanded missile and drone threats against Riyadh, Jeddah, and border provinces, raising the risk of a longer exchange.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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