Possible scenario
Diplomatic Pause Returns
20% Chance
Regional diplomacy through Oman, Qatar and UN channels produces another pause linked to Gaza negotiations and pressure from Gulf states. Shipowners remain cautious, but insurance and freight markets begin to retrace part of the October risk premium.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.4%
- Industrials +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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