Possible scenario
Contained Maritime Disruption
45% Chance
Houthi and Iran-aligned attacks remain frequent enough to keep insurers, shipowners and charterers cautious, but they do not shut the Bab el-Mandeb or Strait of Hormuz. Naval escorts and rerouting absorb the shock, leaving the main impact in freight rates, insurance premia and modestly higher oil prices.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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