Possible scenario
Coalition Retaliation Cycle
25% Chance
Washington and London respond to the surge in ship attacks with new strikes on Houthi launch sites, radars and storage areas in Yemen. The operation may restore deterrence, but it also risks a short escalation cycle involving drones, missiles and threats to Gulf energy infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.