Stagflation Risk Builds

35% Chance

Weak confidence, rising unemployment and inflation at 4% point to a stagflationary mix for Australia. The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to stay cautious, limiting relief for households even as consumer demand weakens.

Initial impacts

Market volatility Up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
10-year Treasury yield Down

Secondary impacts

Consumer Cyclicals -0.7%
Finance -0.5%
Consumer Services -0.4%

Portfolio impact

S&P 500-0.3%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

Stagflation Risk Builds

Initial impacts

Secondary impacts

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Portfolio