Possible scenario
Soft Landing Holds
20% Chance
The confidence decline may overstate the weakness in actual spending if employment, wages and household balance sheets remain stable. In this scenario, Australia slows but avoids a sharper downturn.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.8%
- Consumer Services +0.6%
- Finance +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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