Possible scenario
Slowdown Drives Easing
30% Chance
The confidence slump could reinforce a view that Australian demand is cooling fast enough to reduce inflation pressure over coming months. Investors may begin to price earlier RBA easing if jobs and retail data weaken further.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.2%
- Technology +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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