Possible scenario
Regional Spillover Risk
18% Chance
The West Bank operation becomes a rallying point for Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and Hezbollah messaging. Cross-front pressure rises, though the most likely spillover remains limited rocket fire, border incidents, or proxy attacks rather than a declared regional war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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