Possible scenario
Prolonged West Bank Insurgency
28% Chance
The battalion surge disrupts some networks but also triggers fresh recruitment and retaliatory attacks. Israel extends major raids across refugee camps and highway checkpoints, increasing friction with the Palestinian Authority and local armed groups.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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