Possible scenario
Contained Security Sweep
42% Chance
Israel maintains an unusually large West Bank deployment but prevents the operation from becoming a region-wide escalation. The Palestinian Authority continues limited security coordination in Nablus, Jenin, and Tulkarm while avoiding a direct political confrontation with Israel.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Tickers
- ESLT-0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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