Possible scenario
Soft Landing Holds
58% Chance
The most likely path is that the U.S. avoids a 2026 recession, consistent with the Q2 GDP beat and falling New York Fed recession odds. With only one quarter left in 2026, prediction markets increasingly treat an official recession call as implausible unless a sudden shock appears.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Up
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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