Possible scenario
Inflation Reacceleration Risk
12% Chance
The economy avoids recession, but stronger demand or sticky services inflation reduces expectations for near-term Fed easing. Markets shift from recession relief to concern that policy may stay restrictive into 2027.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.6%
- Utilities -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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