Possible scenario
Regional War Escalation
24% Chance
A major Iranian retaliation could pull the United States, Israel, Gulf monarchies, and proxy forces into a wider regional conflict. This is less likely than a limited campaign but plausible given the sequence of U.S. warship attacks, Israeli retaliation, and the Hormuz blockade.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +6.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-3.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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