Possible scenario
Targeted Pay Compromise
30% Chance
The government tries to defuse the cost-of-living dispute without reopening full indexation. A one-off or narrowly targeted measure is more likely than a broad wage concession because France is already under rating-agency scrutiny.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
- Finance -0.2%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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